It has good prospects for oil supply and demand Still need to prevent potential bearish
Beauty bean yield raised after the accident, the CBOT soybean futures for three consecutive trading day down to the digestion of the United States department of agriculture report bearish influence, the overall decline was only 3.5%, then a rebound in China's Mid-Autumn festival holiday.Domestic oil futures market to follow beauty dish fell sharply, during which the soybean oil contracts dip below 1701 nearly 250 points, while the spot price fell just less than one hundred yuan, sales main body's price mentality.
Market digest faster than expected, with the report on the one hand, the former has been digested, on the other hand because of the beautiful bean export demand too "grab an eye", market soon turned to the line of sight, can say, the bean harvest low has become "the past".Obviously, the location near 930 cents per bushel is beauty bean strong support in the future.
The beans to regain rebound kinetic energy
The holiday after a brief silence, U.S. soybean export market "anticipation" the return of the Chinese buyers.It is reported that about 20% of Chinese importers to import demand in October and November needs to be about 70% of the book, most of them will be supplied by us meet.Investors for a few months later the bean exports strong "confident", this is also pull the CBOT soybean prices rebounded quickly recently main support factor.
"Oil world" expected, "between September 2016 and February 2016, the bean exports to leap over the previous year, 5 million tons, 45 million tons."In the United States before the new bean centralized supply market, its an old inventory will accelerate the speed down, late August beauty bean total inventories fell to 5.3 million tons, is expected to reduce 1 million tons last month.
In addition to the "export demand," the main bullish, worries about the weather recently, gives additional power to the beautiful bean rebound.This refers to the Midwest crop producing triggered by heavy rains, concerns or slow the pace will result in the next few Zhou Dadou harvest;On the other hand refers to the South American soybean planting outlook becomes poor, dry conditions in parts of the sowing delayed, may therefore delayed harvest time.
Palm oil is still the problem
Malaysian palm oil futures hit on September 19th, its biggest one-day gain in more than two weeks, BMD12 month crude palm oil futures rose 1.9%, to 2642 ringgit/ton, reach the highest level since November 2013, inventory demand forecasts and weakening of the ringgit, the domestic oil price forming a strong impetus.
From a global perspective, 2015/2016 plant oil stock dropped sharply, decline in more than 4 million tons.Oil to the world, according to "global vegetable oil production forecast in 203.8 million tons, far not enough to meet the demand of 208.2 million tonnes of global, can only rely on a large number of inventory to fill the gap."Among them, the palm oil inventories fell the most obvious, Malaysian palm oil stocks in August of 1.46 million tons, to decline from a year earlier as much as 1 million tons, which is the cause of the strong support the palm oil prices in recent months.The first half of September, Malaysia refining soft palm oil from Argentina soybean oil FOB discount once dropped to less than $10 per ton on average, follow-up does not rule out the possibility of palm oil from soybean oil short-term price premium.
In late September, the domestic ports palm oil inventory is still hovering around 300000 tons of low level, this is very price for spot sales main body psychology plays a main support, despite the current 24 degrees palm oil price is at the level of soybean oil above the current price for a long time, and demand the same dismal, but instead of soybean oil to "seize" a lot of market share, for soybean oil and other oil price forming joint support.
Rapeseed oil store or pressure again
September and October, domestic soybean volume was only about 6 million tons, to the port to port in oil is part of the factory there is a shortage of soybean discontinuity, open probability, in turn, is limited, and most factories periodic downtime, National Day holiday to soybean oil to inventory.Into October, grease into the traditional fourth quarter demand season, relative to character, palm oil consumption will shrink further, and there will be further improve and promote soybean oil consumption, the price at the bottom of the form.
According to the previous rule, in the fourth quarter of each year to the next year's first quarter, is the process of soybean oil to inventory.But unlike previous years, this year cast rapeseed oil storage for the oil supply is pressure, rumors again store is expected to restart in October, once a restart to become fact, short-term critical oil prices, will also will be the fourth quarter oil price whole upside down, therefore aspects still need to be wary of risk.
Medium-term extreme market is expected to hard now
Before entering in October in late September, namely main CBOT soybean contract is expected to hit 990 cents per bushel, even further upside to test 1000 cents per bushel of integer barrier resistance position, of course this need strong "export" or "slowing harvest concerns" to continue to cooperate.
Once the weather to improve, speed up the bean harvest, is likely to be empty again with the "weight", phased back it's not hard to foresee.
Late September quarter grain stocks report will again "test" beauty bean, market expectations beauty bean planting area may rise further, but soy stocks would fall further, long-short interwoven situation may exacerbate market volatility.CBOT soybean futures most of the time in October to hover range from 960 to 1060 cents per bushel.
Domestic soybean oil futures have not yet get rid of the shock interval since march to construct, soybean oil, 1701 contracts in recent months continues to wander in 6000 ~ 6450 yuan/ton range, in late September and October, is expected to appear extreme sex is still difficult to positive or negative, will its "from" shock range.
